The resting period for the No. 1 seeds is almost finished. The divisional round of the NFL playoffs bracket is coming up. Super Wild Card Weekend ends Monday and has already delivered some stunning results. The first three games of the playoffs were all uneven contests, with the Texans blowing out the Browns, the Chiefs ending down the Dolphins, and the Packers hurting the Cowboys.
They brought the first nail-biting matchup Sunday night, with the Lions surviving the Rams to win a 24-23 thriller. Monday was a bit less exciting, as the Bills handled the Steelers 31-17 despite a late retaliation exertion from Pittsburgh, while the Buccaneers tired the Eagles 32-9 in a game that Tampa Bay not ever trailed.
The bracket for the next round is now formed with all four matchups for the divisional round set. Here’s a sneak peek at the schedule for the eight teams remaining in the 2024 NFL playoff bracket 2024.
Table of Contents
NFL Playoff Bracket 2024
Here are the matchups for the divisional NFL playoff bracket 2024 round.
AFC
— Ravens (1) vs. Texans (4)
— Chiefs (3) vs. Bills (2)
NFC
— 49ers (1) vs. Packers (7)
— Lions (3) vs. Buccaneers (4)
AFC Divisional Round Matchups
Ravens (1) vs. Texans (4)
What to know:
Welcome back to the postseason, Lamar Jackson. The foremost applicant for NFL MVP will start his first postseason game since the 2020 season. Jackson was injured and missed Baltimore’s lone playoff game last season, but his presence gives the Ravens their most significant reason for hopefulness in creating a run at the Super Bowl.
For the Texans, it’s an accident to shock the world. But for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and rookie coach DeMeco Ryans, it will be a massive examination against a Baltimore protection that led the NFL in sacks during the even season (60). Houston will face the hottest team in the league down the stretch, as the Ravens won six of their past seven games. And since Week 11, Baltimore has the highest point margin in the NFL (plus-90).
Why the Ravens will win:
The 2023 defense finished sixth in EPA per play (minus-0.1) among all teams over the past 10 seasons. Sixth! With all its simulated pressure that constantly creates sack opportunities, Baltimore’s incredible defense gives the Ravens a great chance against anyone.
I haven’t even mentioned the likely league MVP yet. Jackson finished the season hot, with incredible performances against the 49ers and then the Dolphins to close out his regular season (he sat in Week 18). With accurate receivers on this offense, including Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., every play is a constant dual threat to Jackson’s legs and arm. Baltimore can win with offense or defense (heck, or even special teams). And that’s why the Ravens are so tough.
Why the Texans will win:
Well, how about Stroud? Sure, there are other reasons — from receiver Nico Collins to rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. — to like Houston, but what Stroud has done in recent weeks gives the Texans hope against anyone. And that includes Baltimore. Since Week 16, Stroud ranks third in QBR, behind only Jackson and Love. Stroud is a rookie growing into the professional quarterback he’ll become before our eyes, and the progression is happening fast. He’s already at the point where Houston has become dangerous.
Oh, and the only defense that was better than Baltimore this season? Cleveland. And Stroud handled that test just fine in the wild-card round.
Bills (2) vs. Chiefs (3)
What to know:
It’s time to succeed on the road, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs signal caller will show a road playoff game for the first time in his brilliant vocation, giving the Bills an additional shot at a side that has exiled them from the playoffs twice in the past three seasons. In a rematch of the overtime playoff classic between these teams in the 2021 divisional round, the Chiefs and Bills will meet at Highmark Stadium.
Both clubs won their opening-round games comparatively quickly, with the Chiefs removing the Dolphins and the Bills distributing the Steelers home. The intensity gets ratcheted up next weekend, though. Mahomes wasn’t particularly fazed by playing on the road this season, completing 69.7% of his attempts. And he is 38-11 on the road in the regular season for his career, the most wins by any QB in their first 50 road starts since 1950, per ESPN Stats & Information. But Mahomes also had eight interceptions in games away from Arrowhead in 2023. Will that trend continue in Buffalo?
Why the Bills will win:
Did you see Josh Allen’s 52-yard touchdown run? For all the attention on Allen’s mistakes, Buffalo has one of the best offenses in the league because of how dangerous he can be while creating on his own. This season, he generated double the EPA (60.2) of any other quarterback on designed carries and scrambles.
Outdueling Mahomes is entirely different than besting Mason Rudolph, as Allen did quickly in the wild-card round. But on paper, the Bills have the best offense in this game, and it’s not even close. That’s the most important advantage to have in this game.
Why the Chiefs will win:
They will be underdogs, but they have a couple of critical factors (beyond the obvious of Mahomes) working in their favor. First, the emergence of receiver Rashee Rice. The Chiefs’ offense was plagued throughout the season by lacking a second receiving option beyond an aging and declining Travis Kelce. Rice, who produced a robust 2.6 yards per route run in the regular season, played an increasing role as the year went on and then exploded in the wild-card round for 130 yards on eight receptions against the Dolphins. The Chiefs might have found the playmaker they needed just in time.
Second, Kansas City’s defense is legitimate. Sure, the weather might have hindered the Dolphins on Saturday. But it took more than low temperatures to hold the second-best offense in football in the regular season to just seven points in the postseason. With its performance, the Chiefs’ defense moved up to fourth in EPA per play (minus-0.06) for the season. That side of the ball gives them a chance against Buffalo.
NFC Divisional Round Matchups
49ers (1) vs. Packers (7)
What to know:
Packers quarterback Jordan Love showed stunning accuracy against the Cowboys’ edge rush and coverage in his playoff debut Sunday. But the challenge posed by the rested 49ers coming off a bye provides an even bigger test. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is no postseason rookie, and he has some unfinished business after his hot start in the 2022 playoffs was short-circuited by an elbow injury in the NFC Championship Game.
With Niners coach Kyle Shanahan aiming to improve his postseason record to 7-3 in seven seasons, look for San Francisco to rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey and the running game. That’s where this matchup could turn, allowing the 49ers to attack a Green Bay weakness. No NFL team had more run plays of 10 or more yards than San Francisco’s 74 in the even season. Meanwhile, the Packers rank in the lowest third in rushing yards, contrary to after-first contact (29th with 906) and yards allowable per rush (23rd at 4.4).
Why the 49ers will win:
Why won’t they win? I can ask that query from now until the Super Bowl because after the Packers pulled to pieces the Cowboys, that left San Francisco without a significant threat remaining in the conference. The 49ers are the best team in football and the best team left in the NFC by far.
San Francisco boasts the best trait a Super Bowl hopeful can have:
The No. 1 offense (counting the No. 1 passing offense). And it’s by a lot. The Niners’ 0.16 predictable points added (EPA) per play was well ahead of the No. 2 team, the already-eliminated Dolphins, at 0.12. Purdy is reinforced by an absurd set of playmakers: McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. We’re two paragraphs in, and I haven’t mentioned the protection, with Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, and Chase Young rushing the passer. The 49ers have so many strengths that they don’t need them all to click to win.
Why the Packers will win:
The flip side of all the compliments I bestowed on San Francisco is that they are all bad news for Green Bay. These two sides are not in the same association. But it’s football. Things happen. The Packers could win, and it starts with Love — not just because he’s the quarterback but because of the type of quarterback he has evolved into throughout the campaign. From Week 10 until the end of the regular season, Love finished second in QBR. The only signal-caller ahead of him? Dak Prescott, whom Love just outdueled in the wild-card round.
Defensively, even though the Packers have been disappointing all season, this is still a talented group. Could the Packers put it all together in their biggest game of the season? It remains possible. Turnovers, lucky bounces, and an A-game from their defense are probably all necessary for the Packers to pull off this upset. But it could happen.
Lions (3) vs. Buccaneers (4)
What to know:
The Lions have the chance to make more history by winning manifold playoff games in the same season for the first time since their 1957 contest run. No doubt, Eminem will want to show up for that. It’s no mystery how they’ve gotten here, either. The city of Detroit might embrace its underdog personality, but after beating the Rams to advance, the Lions will be favored here because of their productive offense. They ranked in the top five this season in yards per play (third), scoring (fifth), passing yards (second), and rushing yards (fifth). The Lions displayed offensive proficiency in a 20-6 regular-season win over the Buccaneers, outgaining Tampa Bay 380 yards to 251 in October.
But the Bucs have won six out of seven- including Monday night’s victory over the Eagles- and are experienced in postseason play. Tom Brady is gone, but many teammates who joined him in those playoff appearances remain. They won’t be intimidated by the stakes.
Why Lions will win
Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is suddenly playing at a different level. He has always been good, but the advanced metrics were never fantastic. Now? He’s suddenly on a three-game, multiple-sack streak. And he posted a 33% pass rush win rate in the wild-card round — the highest of any player in the playoffs entering Monday night. Against Tampa Bay tackle Luke Goedeke (who registered a below-average 86% pass block win rate in the regular season), Hutchinson has the advantage, and that could make a big difference for the defense — the unit that is supposed to be Detroit’s weakness.
The other side of the ball is clicking under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who is getting the most out of quarterback Jared Goff. Tight end Sam LaPorta was able to return to action, and Detroit has one of the best running games in the league. Let’s be honest: The Lions are the superior team here. They have to play up to their ability.
Why Buccaneers will win:
If you look at these teams’ strengths and weaknesses, you can see a path for the Buccaneers. Their offense is imbalanced. They can’t run the ball, but their pass game with Baker Mayfield has been relatively effective all season. Tampa Bay ranked ninth in the regular season’s EPA per dropback (0.10). That’s just fine against Detroit. The Lions’ run defense is solid; pass defense is where they struggle.
To beat Philadelphia, the Bucs deployed their typical blitz-heavy strategy
They blitzed on 40% of opponent dropbacks in the regular season, third-most in the league, and it worked against the Eagles. Could it work again versus Detroit? The Lions aren’t blitz-beaters. Goff’s QBR dropped from 11th to 15th, which is best when facing the blitz. Mix in some luck, and you can’t rule Tampa Bay out.
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